Scary scary stuff
China is systematically building a legal framework for a potential invasion of Taiwan. How can Taiwan’s friends, partners, and allies push back?
We come together as a unique writing team: military lawyers from the U.S. and Taiwanese armed forces. We seek here to explore China’s ongoing legal preparations for the use of force against Taiwan and uncover likely legal maneuvers Beijing will employ in the lead-up to an invasion. On that basis, we outline key steps for Taiwan’s international supporters to strengthen deterrence, including dismantling China’s legal pretext for aggression and implementing coordinated counter-lawfare strategies to challenge Beijing’s lawfare campaign.
Why Does a Legal Framework for War Matter?
Legal frameworks shape the way conflicts are justified, perceived, and responded to — both domestically and internationally. By crafting a legal basis for war, China is not only preparing its domestic landscape for a Taiwan invasion but also seeking to influence global narratives, erode Taiwan’s international support, and reduce the likelihood of foreign intervention.
Beijing understands that modern warfare extends to the legal domain, where the struggle for perceived legitimacy is paramount. By embedding this mindset into its military strategy, China aims to frame an invasion as a lawful internal matter, fostering diplomatic ambiguity that could deter international opposition and delay collective security responses. This is particularly critical in an era where legitimacy plays a central role in shaping geopolitical alignments and the willingness of nations to take decisive action. Through legal instruments like the Anti-Secession Law, Beijing is setting conditions for the use of force by normalizing its legal claims, asserting jurisdictional control, and criminalizing resistance. This incremental approach to lawfare seeks to shift the strategic environment in China’s favor before conflict, making an eventual invasion seem like a reasonable and legally justified course of action.
Countering China’s legal preparations for war is therefore essential to preserving peace and security in the Western Pacific and ensuring that international law remains a bulwark against aggression, rather than a weapon used to facilitate it. The more China’s lawfare is exposed and opposed, the harder it becomes for Beijing to legitimize aggression against Taiwan, both at home and abroad.
China’s Legal Case for Taking Taiwan
China leverages its “one China principle” as a purported legal justification for a Taiwan invasion, labeling the issue an “internal matter” exempt from the U.N. Charter’s prohibition on the use of force. Amid rising geopolitical tensions over the past two decades, Beijing has intensified efforts to promote its one China principle internationally. Simultaneously, Beijing has institutionalized its one China principle domestically by establishing a legislative framework rooted in its 1982 constitution, which designates Taiwan as an inseparable part of the People’s Republic of China.
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